Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 40.246739 43.949310 48.036313 52.920950 58.652341 65.231069 73.453717
2025-03-02 34.253896 38.989751 44.593935 51.846129 61.189675 73.139156 90.153661
2025-03-09 30.823521 36.014598 42.439349 51.212958 63.298678 80.086671 106.726414
2025-03-16 27.863390 33.126235 39.839936 49.358325 63.121333 83.481344 118.774158
2025-03-23 26.842818 32.530040 40.034737 51.143258 68.161194 95.398094 148.555934
2025-03-30 25.313459 31.084589 38.882008 50.785854 69.820342 102.205489 172.000809
2025-04-06 23.906997 29.671936 37.612175 50.048872 70.675014 107.721432 195.410452
2025-04-13 22.385379 27.984717 35.798708 48.256985 69.459542 109.076449 209.884741
2025-04-20 21.974598 27.813783 36.149537 49.861593 74.309989 123.498013 268.272934
2025-04-27 21.514495 27.530128 36.292705 51.121275 78.735926 138.473258 344.395582
2025-05-04 20.974426 27.088186 36.148388 51.863237 82.288492 152.728618 439.034165
2025-05-11 20.207843 26.263549 35.344700 51.369268 83.266938 160.930424 522.286742
2025-05-18 19.418019 25.393572 34.459625 50.733968 84.053149 169.578855 634.869529
2025-05-25 18.611363 24.461993 33.423917 49.741725 83.952977 175.909877 757.871692
2025-06-01 17.952316 23.721300 32.647849 49.149294 84.646852 185.105493 953.565248
2025-06-08 17.123754 22.682230 31.323565 47.411618 82.445080 184.108715 1045.164839
2025-06-15 16.992180 22.714804 31.768912 49.084039 88.606365 215.451517 1983.352723
2025-06-22 16.510779 22.174274 31.215747 48.749347 89.784157 229.124895 3052.292224
2025-06-29 16.001201 21.567388 30.515711 48.058909 89.939948 238.897802 4726.595341
2025-07-06 15.356976 20.722946 29.368735 46.378549 87.249616 234.869495 5446.581368
2025-07-13 15.272733 20.769895 29.762160 47.883395 93.422629 277.268167 67299.957901
2025-07-20 15.136300 20.724697 29.988935 49.063455 99.018630 324.190142 NaN
2025-07-27 14.932234 20.559137 29.990008 49.757987 103.387232 370.797444 NaN